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Nate Silver FULLY BOOKED

 Nate Silver

The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail - But Some Succeed
3 May 2013, 12.30-13.30 (PAST EVENT)
Watershed, Bristol (see map)

Event

Barack Obama calls Nate Silver ‘A superstar… my rock, my foundation’. He correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states in the 2012 US Presidential election. His book, The Signal and the Noise, was a number one bestseller in 2012. We think we want information when we really want knowledge. We face danger whenever information growth outpaces our ability to process it, because humans are hardwired to read evidence selectively. And if the quantity of data in our world is increasing by 2.5 quintillion bytes per day, the amount of useful information certainly isn’t. So how do we tell the difference? Silver will explain how expert forecasters think and what lies behind their success, across a range of areas including the stock market, the poker table, politics, sports, earthquakes, the weather and disease control. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our forecasts, we have much to learn from Silver’s investigation into how to distinguish the true insights from the noise of useless data.

This event is in association with Business West.

Go to our blog to read reviews of the book.

This event is now fully booked: check with the box office for returned tickets.

Biography

Nate Silver shot to fame in 2008 for correctly predicting the outcome in 49 out of 50 states in the US Presidential election. In 2012, when most media pundits and political analysts claimed the US election was ‘too close to call’, Silver trumped them all again, giving Obama a 92% chance of winning. His website www.FiveThirtyEight.com is syndicated by the New York Times. Nate Silver was named one of TIME‘s 100 most influential people and one of Rolling Stone‘s top 100 agents of change – all before he turned 30. He has appeared on The Daily Show, The Colbert Report, CNN and MSNBC and spoken at TED and SXSW. Silver created his innovative PECOTA baseball forecasting model during stolen hours at his finance job in 2002, before turning his attention to professional poker, advising Hollywood film studios, and conquering political forecasting. Follow him @FiveThirtyEight.

4 Comments »

Responses

  1. Nate Silver: you ask the questions - Government Tenders, Government News and Information - Government Online says:
    April 5th, 2013 at 2:10 pm

    [...] him talk probability, prediction and poker in person. At lunchtime he’ll be talking at the Bristol Festival of Ideas, then later in the day he’ll be in Shoreditch, London speaking at an event organised by Nesta [...]

  2. Nate Silver: you ask the questions | The Financial Times – Business News & Financial News says:
    April 5th, 2013 at 4:21 pm

    [...] him talk probability, prediction and poker in person. At lunchtime he’ll be talking at the Bristol Festival of Ideas, then later in the day he’ll be in Shoreditch, London speaking at an event organised by Nesta [...]

  3. Nate Silver: you ask the questions | Education Today says:
    April 5th, 2013 at 11:32 pm

    [...] him talk probability, prediction and poker in person. At lunchtime he’ll be talking at the Bristol Festival of Ideas, then later in the day he’ll be in Shoreditch, London speaking at an event organised by Nesta [...]

  4. The Evening Post - Nate Silver: you ask the questions says:
    May 28th, 2013 at 11:33 pm

    [...] him talk probability, prediction and poker in person. At lunchtime he’ll be talking at the Bristol Festival of Ideas, then later in the day he’ll be in Shoreditch, London speaking at an event organised by Nesta [...]

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